Forum
The PMN forum is a space for modellers, policy-makers, journalists, patients, and members of the public to pose questions and learn from one another. Participants are invited to discuss anything from technical issues, to key information for decison-making, to how models work, to needs and perspectives that have yet to be addressed.
Good question! First off, modelling is definitely something that requires considerable expertise- often, it takes several people with different types of expertise to build one model. And it is widely agreed that it's beneficial to have models evaluated by other experts outside the modelling team (this is the principle behind the scientific peer review process). However, modelling doesn't occur in a vacuum: the process requires making a number of social value judgments, decisions that can't be made just using scientific evidence and logic alone. For example, the decision about what potential treatments or policies to examine in a model is a value judgment. In addition, models generally must leave out some amount of information, and this is a judgment call. To make it, modellers need to decide what is most important to know and what sorts of losses of information are tolerable. Furthermore, there are many judgments in modelling that have to do with how much certainty we need before incorporating a particular piece of evidence into a model, or before making a conclusion about something. These are just some examples of value judgments in modelling (if you want to more detailed information, please check out Dr. Harvard's recent publication: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953620301945?via%3Dihub
But the take-home message is that, although modelling does require a good deal of scientific expertise, not every decision that is involved in the process is a strictly scientific decision. On the contrary, many modelling decisions draw on social and ethical values around what is most important to know, what are acceptable and worthwhile treatments and policies to explore, and what sorts of errors are essential to avoid. For all of these reasons, we think it is good to start building ways for members of the public to give input to modellers, including patients who are affected by a health condition being modelled, or anyone affected by a public health policy. In addition that, we think there is potential benefit to building ways for experts from different disciplines to talk and collaborate on new approaches to modelling, rather than experts speaking only to people in their own discipline. All of that said, we would still emphasize the importance of the sort of model evaluation that is carried out by experts within specific fields, wherein significant expertise is built up over time